The reason to begin talking about possible forms of global governance is we’re already drifting toward global governance.

Model number one is Global Corporate Feudalism. In this scenario, the power of multinational corporations outpaces the power of nation-states (even the US) and international treaty organizations (like the UN or IMF). Many smaller states would bercome the de facto property of corporations, traded back and forth in the twists and turns of powers. Larger nations only retain leverage either as the “sponsors” of leading corporations or by promoting competition between corporations for their territorial resources (such as their militaries). International treaty organizations that survive either fall under the power of one or more corporations or become the public playing field for backroom intrigues. INGOs (like the Red Cross or Amnesty International) that survive must choose between trying to play on the level of the corporations or else begin to resemble medieval guilds or monastic orders. (Many INGOs will disappear as they are either bought up or rendered irrelevant by duplication of services by corporations.) Some national-states will retain militaries, but most will transform into de facto police forces for the nation’s corporate owner. Corporations will employ their own militaries—predominantly in the form of special forces—to use against each other in declared and undeclared wars. (For an example, see Kim Stanley Robinson’s depiction of earth in his Red Mars triology.)

Model number two is Empire. Here, the corporations also function as fiefs, but a monopoly on decisive political force falls to one nation-state. The most likely scenario is the US militarizing space. Orbital bombing platforms and orbitally deployed shock troops prove a decisive advantage against even nuclear weapons, rendering their conventional deployment ineffective. Unable to match the economic power of the corporate fiefs, the Empire instead functions as their arbiter and legitimator. Corporations and INGOs still compete as in Global Corporate Feudalism, but their competition is subdued by the Empire’s monopoly on effective military force. A handful of corporations and INGOs acquire monopolies of key resources and services, bringing them into special arrangements with the Empire. The whole arrangment resembles the Holy Roman Empire more than the Roman Empire. (For an example see Frank Herbert’s Dune series.)

Neither option is acceptable. If we don’t want to drift into empire or feudalism, we’d best get our thinking caps on.